UK votes to leave EU - what next for business?
Posted on in Business News , Cycles News , Political News
The referendum on the future of the United Kingdom's status in Europe has concluded, resulting in a decision to leave the European Union.
The overall vote was 51.9% in favour of leaving, compared with 48.1% in favour of remaining.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has urged the Government to move quickly to explain the process and how this will affect retailers and small businesses.
Without clarity, the retail sector will suffer from a prolonged period of uncertainty, BRC has warned. The organisation also said that retailers should be prepared for the possibility of significant swings, particularly in the exchange rate and consumer confidence.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: "Keeping the cost of goods down for consumers and providing certainty for businesses must be at the heart of the Government's plans for life outside of the EU."
In a poll carried out by ActSmart ahead of the referendum, nearly two thirds of independent retailers said they believed the UK should leave the EU and would be voting that way on 23rd June.
The vote to leave brings a 43-year association to its end. The most difficult part now will be agreeing a new trading relationship, establishing what tariffs and other barriers to entry are permitted, and agreeing on obligations such as free movement. Such a process, EU leaders claim, could take another five years.
In the short term, markets are going to react in a big way. The Brexit has no historic precedent. No precedent means volatility in markets, probably on a global scale.
What next?
June 28th - 29th
EU leaders are due to gather for a summit in Brussels, at which there will be only one topic - the Brexit vote. Mr Cameron is expected to formally notify them of our intention to leave, trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty - the legal process for quitting the 28 nation bloc.
July
As the immediate shock of the Brexit vote eases, the government gears up to the task of negotiating a new deal with the EU and replacing other bilateral trade agreements. On July 6, Mr Cameron will be able to lead the government response to the publication of the long-awaited Iraq Inquiry report. Shortly afterwards he is due to attend a Nato summit. July 21st Parliament is due to rise for its summer break, but there will be little rest for ministers as they are consumed by the negotiations. The civil service has been quietly contingency planning for the possibility of our departure, with every department set to be affected by the seismic changes.
Mid-August
The cracks could quickly start to show in the rest of the EU, as other countries wonder whether they too can forge another course outside the club. EU council president Donald Tusk has questioned whether the Brussels club - and indeed 'Western civilisation' - can survive Brexit. Senior figures such as German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble have also admitted the grouping will be significantly weakened.
Political turmoil will be perhaps the biggest threat to the UK. If the Conservative leadership takes a similar length of time as in 2005, this is around when the successor to Mr Cameron could be announced.
September
New parliamentary session begins.